WHAT THE FAYk? (Part I)

So, as they have done pretty much everyday since Fay existed, the prediction-powers-that-be have again inched Fay's track ever so slightly southward (as of the 5AM advisory). Which is not surprising given that track forecast errors for Fay have averaged about 350-450 miles 4 to 5 days out. I like to read NHC's official discussion for "the real scoop"; here's what they scooped up for me this morning:

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF FAY...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CYCLONE'S CURRENT
STALL...IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD
WESTWARD AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN FAY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN A
GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW SHOWS A
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET
GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK.

THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...
HOWEVER...SHOULD FAY GO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

Followed by the 11am scoop:

FAY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT A TRACK FATHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED COULD BRING
THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THIS CASE...FAY
SHOULD NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST...AND DO NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS
OVER WATER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

STEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED VERY LIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY FAY HAS
BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF FAY. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR WEST...A MOTION WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
YET. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN GIVES ME NO
OPTION BUT TO FORECAST A TURN TO THE LEFT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SOON.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE.

Perhaps it's insomnia, or the weird collective indescribable, slightly off-kilter way many of us seem to feel and behave as "you know what day" approaches; but despite the slowly shifting cone southward, I'm still not all freaked out...

...about Ms. What the FAYk, that is. I am, however, perturbed by the Corps insistence on freaking us the hell out every August since 2005.

(Remember 2006? "Oh we didn't test the temporary pumps in water and so we just realized this vibration thing we gotta fix but the pumps will work. We are ready." 'Member 2007? "Umm, yeah, funniest thing, y'all; them temporary pumps might have not worked but it's all good cuz we didn't have to use them anyway!")

This year, in a broadway revue-like tribute to the feds' performance during Katrina ("there was only overtopping, not any breaching"), today they introduce the clear (TO THEM) distinction between protecting us from surge as opposed to from rainwater. Because apparently rainfall is not a key element of hurricane protection. I have a crazy hunch that a former insurance executive is now sewing his engineering oats in a new job over on Leake Ave. at CORPS HQ.

But life goes on, and I must get back to mine until I have time to tell you why I must give props to the new local levee authority for wasting no time telling the Corps that they are full of B.S. Stay tuned for the next episode of WHAT THE FAYk?!...